2024 Forecast for TOPCon Solar Cells: Significant Market Penetration Expected

In recent years, with the continuous development of solar technology, TOPCon solar cells have emerged as a promising player in the market. It is anticipated that in 2024, the market penetration of TOPCon solar cells will experience a significant boost. This technology adopts a tunneling oxide layer to passivate the contact, depositing ultra-thin layers of oxide and doping polycrystalline silicon on an N-type silicon wafer to form a passivated contact structure. Compared to other technologies, TOPCon solar cells exhibit excellent interface passivation performance, effectively collecting carriers across the entire surface and thereby improving the fill factor coefficient. Additionally, their simple structure, lack of photolithography for opening holes, and compatibility with existing PERC production lines contribute to their attractiveness within the industry.

The manufacturing process of TOPCon solar cells involves multiple stages in the supply chain, making it relatively time-consuming. However, the widespread adoption of TOPCon technology is expected to positively impact the demand for N-type silicon materials, N-type silicon wafers, and related equipment and consumables.

Since 2022, major players such as JA Solar, JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, Tongwei, GCL System Integration, and Seraphim have significantly increased their investment in TOPCon solar cell production capacity. It is foreseeable that, with these industry giants intensifying their efforts, the market penetration of TOPCon solar cells will follow a trajectory similar to the iteration of aluminum-back field cells in 2019.

However, in 2024, various stages of production capacity may experience an acceleration of oversupply, resulting in actual capacity deployment falling below expectations. Nevertheless, the mainstream trend of TOPCon solar cells is expected to drive substantial demand across various equipment segments. Simultaneously, the overlap between equipment for HJT (Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin layer) and perovskite solar cells with that of TOPCon devices holds the potential to open up new market spaces.

In summary, the development of the TOPCon solar cell market in 2024 will be influenced by factors such as market supply and demand dynamics and the pace of capacity deployment. As technology continues to advance, the future of the solar industry looks promising, with TOPCon solar cells playing an increasingly pivotal role in the market.